Umag, Gstaad, Los Cabos Preview
If there is a venue everyone wants to visit on the ATP Tour, it’s Umag. Of course, that means the players, likewise, may not be as focused on tennis as they should be. The Umag 250 has had such vaunted finalists as Attila Balazs, Dusan Lajovic, Guido Pella, Marco Cecchinato, Paolo Lorenzi, Andrej Martin, and Tommy Robredo in the last five years. Not a top 25 player amoung them.
Gstaad is also pretty unique, in that, it is now (with the retirement of Quito) the highest elevation on tour. That brings a different set of handicapping tools to the table.
And if Australia is considered the ‘far east’ of the sporting world, Los Cabos is about as far west as the ATP tour goes (at least until Indian Wells re-opens). So, travel and fatigue will be a bitch this week.
Truly an interesting week on the tennis calendar. Motivation and venue will play a bigger part than just about any stat you can handicap.
Umag
Just like last week, I show value on Cuevas. That’s mostly due to stats that are long in the past. Also, really, if he wanted to put what few skills he has left to work, he should have taken his serve and entered Gstaad. Cecchinato and Bedene show value as well. And their quarter is a bit of joke, with two qualifiers, Dzumhur and a less than prime Gasquet. The issue is Cecc and Bedene play each other in the first round. I suspect the winner takes the quarter and possibly makes the final given that the fourth quarter is headlined by Lajovic who is having a brutal season. I really wanted to hit Alcaraz today, as this could easily be the event he breaks through. The field is fairly weak (all three are) and he has played well at similar venues this year - he went to the semis in Marbella earlier this year in a seaside tennis academy and he won the Challenger event in Oerias six weeks ago. And I made him +585. Of course, oddsmakers obviously feel the same way, as Alcaraz is the market leader at +450. Sucks.
I do see value in #1 seed Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Betting on #1 seeds in 250’s, in seaside resort towns, during the dog days of the season seems like a really bad idea. But, outside of Krajinovic who is coming off a final on Sunday in Hamburg (which he lost, again) and Alcaraz, who I touched on above, ARV has the best hold/break numbers in the field. Now, the intangibles. He won in very similar conditions earlier this year in Estoril, so that’s a plus and that’s a good sign that a 33 year old clay specialist is still motivated to win some titles - especially in weaker, Covid depressed fields. Further, one of his other two titles was in Bastad, another seaside venue. Additionally, you have to figure at 33, with the aforementioned potential focus on actually winning, ARV is a guy who may actually be able to concentrate on tennis as opposed to looking at the people on the beach.
Ramos Vinolas, +700, x1, Bet365
Gstaad
This is pretty simple. Who can play up on a mountain? Londero won Cordoba once upon a time but he is 5-12 on the year on red dirt. Cerundolo followed in his footsteps winning Cordoba this year. I am a little worried Cerundolo may not be able to back that up. Outside of a title in Roma on the Challenger tour, he hasn’t done anything since Corboda. Bautista Agut has made eighteen finals in his career and only one has been significantly above sea level. He made the final here in 2018. But, clay is his worst surface and to be honest I am pretty confused by his entry here (along with Shapo). Guys in the top 20 should be in North America getting ready for the hard court season and the US Open.
I show value on Delbo and Garin. As mentioned last week, Garin seems to struggle in Europe. But, he does seem to do well at the mid-level elevation stops on tour. His one Euro title came in Munich (500m up). He has won Cordoba and Santiago in South America (both over 500m up). He has only visited Gstaad once and he was only 17 and he has never played Kitzbuhel and Quito. So, it’s open to interpretation whether he can be successful at 1000m up.
Delbo doesn’t have a great record in Gstaad but at least he has been there five times. He’s made the quarters twice in Kitzbuhel and one of his two titles came in Sao Paolo, at 700m up. He can play at altitude and he is one of only five players to have a h/b number over 100% in each of the last three years.
Delbonis +800 x1, Bet365
Garin +650, x1, Bet365
Los Cabos
I show value on six guys and thankfully none on the big dogs. I’m looking for big servers based on the winners history (and finalists too) at this venue and I am looing for guys that didn’t play in Europe or Newport last week (because I can’t imagine that travel is fun). What’s weird about this particular tournament (probably due to the uniqueness of Covid) is that it's a hard court tournament in July and only six guys in the draw have played as many as ten hard court matches this year. Truly weird. So, I am also looking for a guy who has some hard court time under his belt.
Steve Johnson is on the downward swing and is 0-3 on hard courts this year and he bombed out of Newport in round one. Easy avoid. Seppi is likewise on the downside of his career, he is 0-2 on hards this year, and he has never played here in Los Cabos before. I show insane value on JJ Wolf and that is interesting. If he didn’t have to go Nakashime-Querrey to start, I would probably be on him.
That leaves MM, Querrey and Kokkinakis. I like all three. MM has played a whopping twelve matches on hards (relatively speaking, seems like a lot). It sucks that I have to basically choose between him and Kokkinakis as they will presumably meet in the second round. Kokkinakis has the game to succeed here, having made the final before. Big serve, good in tiebreaks, he’s wracked up eleven matches on a hard court already in 2021 with a winning record and he should be rested up.
Querrey played Newport, and poorly. So, I should avoid this. But, well, I just can’t. Maybe he no-showed in Newport because he was already focused on Los Cabos where he has actually won a title before.
Picks:
Kokkinakis +1800, x0.5, Bet365
Querrey +1400, x0.5, Bet365