Singapore, Montpellier, and Cordoba ATP
Singapore looks like a… nice play to play tennis. Of course, it also looks like a nice place to take a vacation after an arduous trip to Australia. It’s a great example of trying to handicap motivation. A new tournament, a 250 to boot, in a seaside city, that probably handed out bags of money to attract ranked players, during a world wide health pandemic. The definition of what tennis handicapping is going to be in 2021. This is going to be gross.
Montpellier is a staple on the tour and usually has a decent field. That field is severely depleted by the COVID scenario players (and governments) are facing, hence we have a tournament with only two top 20 players, six top 50 players and a whack of clay Euro guys who, in a normal season, would be in South America on the Golden Swing.
Cordoba has only been on the circuit for two years - a real staple considering the season we’re about to have. It is one of the few events left on tour that is at extreme altitude, so that will have to be factored in.
Singapore
With no prior history, we’re not 100% sure what conditions will be like here in Sinapore. Thru twelve matches in qualies though, there has only been two tiebreaks and only match that went three sets. Apparently the WTA Finals that were held here the past years were played in pretty slow conditions and that seems to bear out.
Slow indoors? Who benefits from that? Morever, who is excited to actually be here? Cilic, Mannarino, and Millman are all guys with ATP Titles on their belt, they’re over 30, and they have, at least a modicum of name recognition. New tournaments are known for throwing money at players in the way of “appearance fees”. It wouldn’t surprise me if those three maybe got a bag of cash.
I show value, based on my model, with Alexei Popyrin and SoonWoo Kwon. Kwon is, along with Mannarino, one of only two people in the draw who consistently keeps his combined hold/break numbers on a hard court above 100% every year. Kwon fits the statistical angle and the motivational one (he’s 23 and certainly has never been to an ATP final). But, I have two issues with Kwon. One, I took him in almost this exact spot last year (outright in Pune) and he tanked in a wide open draw. Two, he is coming off a title on Sunday in a Challenger event in Italy of all places. That’s not a fun travel spot.
Popyrin is not far from home, prefers hard courts as his best surface, is showing steady improvement (his hold/break numbers have crossed 100% this year) and has a nice number. I’m scared off by his draw, as it looks like he landed in bt far the toughest quarter in the draw. I could easily see Harris, Millman, or Popyrin coming out of this quarter and then they’re going to have to potentially fend off Cilic or Kwon in the semis. That doesn’t sound like fun.
Modelling tennis futures has proven insanely hard and when there is such a dearth of value it has proven fruitful to look at the next couple guys in line, even if they have “negetive value”. That list, in this case, includes Harris, Millman and Bublik. Harris and Millman are aleady involved in gross quarter.
Bublik has the second quarter of the draw to himself. With a bye, two qualifiers/wildcards, two Challenger level players and an opposable seed in Nishioka who flamed out of the Aussie, the quarter is so easy the quarter prices have been pulled off the board. Bublik Bublik is basically equally talented on all surfaces, he made a final already this year and he’s made both a hard court final and a grass final as recently as two years ago. He’s only 23 and title-less so he should be motivated and he should see this as a winnable event. At the very least, he makes the semis.
Bublik +550, x1
Montpellier
Montpellier is the grand daddy of the events this week with a whopping… ten years on tour. It’s been won by a Frenchman eight of the ten times it has been contested and there has been a Frenchman in the final every year. So, just bet Humbert, Tsonga or Pouille, right? Well, I actually show value on Humbert but he is in the top quarter of the draw with Bautista Agut. That’s at best a coin flip, at worst a slam dunk for RBA, who should be hopping up and down to get in form after going 1-3 to start 2021. I don’t believe Simon, Bonzi, Tsonga, or Pouille are in ATP level winning form (whether because of simple lack of talent or health), so they are not worth considering. This could be the first French-less Montpellier final.
So, who else shows value? The top of the chart is David Goffin. If RBA is in rough form, Goffin is in miserable form. After running over some less than stellar competition in Antalya to start the season he has lost three straight matches. There are also just so many question marks in the fourth quarter - Pouille’s health, Tsonga’s health, Goffin’s form, Korda versus ATP level talent. I’d like to avoid all that (I show value on Sonego too but, he is in that quarter as well and is therefore out).
That leaves me some longshot candidates in Egor Gerasimov, Marcus Giron. Jiri Vesely, and Aljaz Bedene. I don’t think Vesely has the game for indoor hards (career 36% winner) and Giron is in the rough first quarter with RBA and Ugo.
Bedene is a guy I love to bet on and he holds some interest. Gerasimov is a marvel on indoor hards and he interests me as well. The issue with both those guys is they are in the quarter of death. In a fairly terrible draw, every player I would consider an option to win landed in the same quarter:
I don’t necessarily show value on Sinner or Murray or Hurkacz. But, I believe someone in this quarter is winning the tournament. So, instead of trying to stretch two or three units across this group of guys, I am going to make a bit of a prop bet and take the third quarter to provide the winner at +140 at bet365.
Winning Quarter = 3rd, +140 x1
Cordoba
I said when the season started that I would be suprised if any real “stars’ made it to South America. I surmised that there was a chance Cristian Garin could just run the table. It looks like him and Schwartzman might have a hand-shake agreement - you take your home event in Cordoba, I’ll take mine in Santiago and we’ll battle for Buenes Aires. I’m surprised Schwartzman made the trip to South America but, I guess it is his only home dates. And he has lost two straight years in Cordoba to the eventual winner of the event (lost last year in the final). DSS is the only guy in the top 30 in the field and the talent gap is well represented by the odds chart where Schwartzman is a laughable +150. I do think he wins the event though and the best way to realize value I think is with a moneyline rollover. He should face some fascimile of Cecchinato, Londero/ARV, Delbonis and then Munar/Kecmanovic/Monteiro. That’s actually a really tough path on clay (despite the player rankings). Everyone in the draw save three guys would consider clay their best surface (and I am sure Kecmanovic will get there shortly) and DSS is scheduled to face the lot of them. That’s why the rollover helps too - if the form looks rough or someone else gets hot, I can get out.
When it comes to an actual outright pick, I do like two things. First, Guido Pella has withdrawn, leaving the second quarter berefit of anyone of any real talent outside of Delbonis. Unless Nic Kicker has been playing top 50 level tennis on the practice courts for the last three years, Delbo should get through his quarter before (hopefully) losing to DSS. The third quarter looks hefty. Monteiro, Kecmanovic and RCB at altitude are all of interest to me. RCB is the closest one to my odds and his success in Quito makes him really interesting. I’m not sure I can really choose a winner amoung those three though. There is someone in the very bottom of the draw I do like in a softer quarter. I show value on the entire bottom half of the field but, I feel like the odds are so skewed by Schwartzman’s prescence, so I don’t mind looking at someone who may not be ‘value’ according to my numbers. Paire is a fadeable seed (I can’t believe he even came to South America), Nic Jarry is great but coming off quite an absence from tennis, and neither of Coria or Koepfer have been to the business end of too many tournaments (Coria only has one Challenger title, Koepfer one Challenger title on grass). Mager and Munar are interesting. Mager won in Biella last year, a Challenger event at 1300 feet of elevation, and Munar has won six Challenger events in the last five years, including one this year already. I’ll gladly take on Paire and I’ll take the glut of tournament wins over the success at elevation.
Schwartzman rollover, x1
Munar 10/1, x1
Delbonis to win 2nd Q, +162, x1